Scotland's Independent Potential

As the Washington Post reports in this article, Great Britain and Scotland have agreed to terms that will give Scotland independence sought after by the Scottish National Party. As the article reports, Scotland will hold newfound freedom in economic and political ventures both nationally and internationally, including “withdrawing from NATO and…the freedom to vote separately from – and perhaps counter to – Britain in world bodies such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund.”

The move will alter world economic policies with a new player, while also potentially decreasing the pull of a former European superpower in Great Britain. As the article mentions, “a move toward independence would also lock Edinburgh and London in fierce negotiations over the cash cow that is North Sea oil – control of which is seen as essential to National Party dreams of Scotland emerging as a wealthy and progressive nation.”

I was surprised initially that I hadn’t heard anything of this news before, given the U.S.’s ties to Great Britain and its potentially diminished power. The American elections are probably to blame for this, as the fight between Romney and Obama over the economy and Obamacare continues to dominate headlines. And yet with the aforementioned line about Scotland’s potentially wealthy emergence as an oil “cash cow,” it seemed as though the news is more related to other issues than previously expected.

Will Scotland emerge as a successful nation offering new competition and criticism to the Eurozone, United Nation, and IMF policies? Or will it rather become the next Ireland, Greece, or Spain, devoid of effective governing and dependent on its more wealthy neighbors? In a sense, will Scotland skip past its period as a developing nation and, because of its history and ties to Great Britain, immediately fall into the category of developed nation? Certainly it has the history, but whether it has the established institutions necessary for governing remains to be seen. For instance, the country is still debating over the voting age, with some suggesting that given the focus on a new, young Scotland, citizens as young as 16 should be allowed to vote.

Most important, however, is the economic question. In light of the trouble faced by the Euro, will Scotland’s newfound independence threaten the currency? As the article points out, “experts say the current double-dip recession may actually spook Scots into voting to stay within [Great Britain].” Perhaps the new independent nation will spur economic success given its oil resources, but the potential for another unsteady developing nation also exists, and adds further stress to a Eurozone already tasked with supporting a few of its self-destructive members.